Visualising spatio-temporal health data: the importance of capturing the 4th dimension (preprint)

Confronted by a rapidly evolving health threat, such as an infectious disease outbreak, it is essential that decision-makers are able to comprehend the complex dynamics not just in space but also in the 4th dimension, time. In this paper this is addressed by a novel visualisation tool, referred to as the Dynamic Health Atlas web app, which is designed specifically for displaying the spatial evolution of data over time while simultaneously acknowledging its uncertainty. It is an interactive and open-source web app, coded predominantly in JavaScript, in which the geospatial and temporal data are displayed side-by-side. The first of two case studies of this visualisation tool relates to an outbreak of canine gastroenteric disease in the United Kingdom, where many veterinary practices experienced an unusually high case incidence. The second study concerns the predicted COVID-19 reproduction number along with incidence and prevalence forecasts in each local authority district in the United Kingdom. These studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the Dynamic Health Atlas web app at conveying geospatial and temporal dynamics along with their corresponding uncertainties.

Emerging variants of canine enteric coronavirus associated with seasonal outbreaks of severe canine gastroenteric disease (preprint)

Canine enteric coronavirus (CECoV) variants have an emerging role in severe outbreaks of canine gastroenteritis. Here we used syndromic health data from a sentinel network of UK veterinary practices to identify an outbreak of severe canine gastroenteritis. Affected dogs frequently presented with vomiting, diarrhoea and inappetence. Data from sentinel diagnostic laboratories showed similar seasonal increases in CECoV diagnosis. Membrane glycoprotein (M) gene sequence analysis implied wide geographical circulation of a new CECoV variant. Whole genome sequencing suggested the main circulating 2022 variant was most closely related to one previously identified in 2020 with additional spike gene recombination; all variants were unrelated to CECoV-like viruses recently associated with human respiratory disease. Identifying factors that drive population-level evolution, and its implications for host protection and virulence, will be important to understand the emerging role of CECoV variants in canine and human health, and may act as a model for coronavirus population adaptation more widely.